With home runs now becoming a more valuable commodity, it’s become increasingly important to analyze the home run threats each team presents and assess which teams are more likely to reach the mark.
The best way to do this is to take a look at each team’s schedule.
While some teams are expected to be in the top five, others are expected at the bottom of the league in their respective division.
To rank teams based on home run potential, I’ve put together a home run tracking tool that tracks the home runs each team has faced over the past six weeks.
As you can see below, the Rockies, Nationals, Dodgers, Padres and Marlins are all projected to have a strong run of success against the Rockies this year, while the Diamondbacks and Brewers are projected to struggle.
In terms of home run danger, the Astros are projected as having the best chance to get their home runs in this group, while they’ll be struggling to come up with enough hits against the Diamondback starters to keep them from being a home field advantage.
The Brewers are the second most vulnerable team, but are projected by Baseball Prospectus to have the best overall chance to win their division.
The Nationals and Dodgers are projected with the second and third most home runs, while Padres will have the most chances to score the winning run this year.
In total, each of the teams in the NL have home run risk in a reasonable portion of their schedules.
If they’re able to put up a few good home runs against the other teams, then that might help them stay competitive against the best teams in baseball.